As Covid cases continue to rise this summer, concerns are growing over the timing of the upcoming rollout of updated vaccines in the fall. The question on many people’s minds is whether these vaccines will arrive in time to make a significant difference in the current situation.
Unlike the flu, which follows a seasonal pattern with peaks in the fall and winter, Covid waves have been less predictable. The new vaccines targeting the KP.2 strain, a descendant of the JN.1 variant, are expected to be distributed in the coming weeks. However, experts believe that these vaccines may not have a significant impact on the current summer wave but will be crucial as the U.S. heads into the fall and winter months when cases typically rise.
History has shown that major waves of Covid are more likely to occur in the fall, according to John Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology. While some may question the timing of the vaccine rollout, experts believe that the current plan is both logical and reasonable given the unpredictable nature of Covid.
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that Covid can surge throughout the year, with peaks in both winter and summer months. The FDA has been following a routine similar to the annual flu shot, updating the Covid vaccine to target the circulating variant each year.
Ideally, public health officials would aim to administer Covid vaccines shortly before each wave to reduce transmission and severe illness. However, until the timing is perfected, experts suggest giving two boosters per year, one in the early summer and one in the fall. These boosters need to be well-matched to the circulating variant to be effective.
While the FDA recommended a booster for high-risk individuals earlier this year, only a small percentage of adults received it, and a summer surge still occurred. Some experts have criticized the FDA for waiting too long to roll out the updated vaccines last fall when hospitalizations were on the rise.
Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist, emphasized that not everyone may need more than one Covid shot a year, as individual risk factors vary. The duration of protection from Covid after infection can also vary, with studies showing it can last three months or longer.
Dr. Ofer Levy, the director of the Precision Vaccines Program at Boston Children’s Hospital, warned against a false sense of security from natural infection, highlighting the importance of vaccines for full protection. Despite the challenges in timing the vaccine rollout, experts believe that sticking to the fall schedule is the best course of action to prepare for potential surges later in the year.
In conclusion, while the timing of the Covid vaccine rollout may be a topic of concern, experts agree that the current plan is reasonable given the unpredictable nature of the virus. As we head into the fall and winter months, the updated vaccines will play a crucial role in controlling the spread of Covid and protecting public health.